DOĞA HAREKETLERİ ARAŞTIRMA DERNEĞİ

1) (U.S.A.) E.D.G.: WaveChart Technology & Earthquake Data Fingerprints

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/130.html

Main reaction:

-- Our members were deeply impressed of E.D.G.'s work, the new concepts he has proposed, and how he has taken fullest advantage of computer technology in his research.

-- Some members considered that earlier work by certain Chinese researchers conform with bits and pieces of work by E.D.G.. However, such work was not integrated together, and stopped a long time ago and not continued to date.

-- As time was very limited, certain researchers expressed that they need more time to more carefully review E.D.G.'s work.

2) (India) Shan: Sun Shadow Deviation observation based earthquake prediction

http://shanguakeforecast.com

Main reaction:

-- Many members expressed their respect and appreciation to Shan's persistance observation work since 1996, similar to many members of the committee in their respective fields.

-- Han Wen-bin, the astronomist attending the conference, although learnt about Shan's work earlier from me but was very suspicious about what Shan is actually observing, after seeing the illustrations and photo presented during the PowerPoint presentation, he was impressed and expressed to me: Han is impressed of what he now sees, although he still has a series of questions, provided that what Shan is observing is true facts, even that such facts seem to cause conflicts with various theories, he considers it is now clear that he must find a way to verify what Shan is observing.

-- Sun Wei developed a seriies of highly sensitive sensor/instruments back in 1975 and is one of the most successful short-term/imminent term earthquake prediction practicers in China. His geostress-meter/strain-meter sensor has been measured and collaberated by Chinese scientists and proved to have very very high level sensitivity. One of his instruments can similtaniously measure the slightest movements of the crust in x-, y- and z- direction. These slightest movements are continuously recorded by one of his instruments operating in the Beijing area.

-- Both Sun and Han propose the following: They would like Shan to provide then with his actual measurements maybe for one week anytime from now, including the exact deviation time (accurate to the second), angle, and magnitude. Sun would like to check these measurements against the the slight movements of the crust in x-, y- and z- direction to see if he can find anything corresponding with each other. Han would like to check it against astronomy data, but first needs to figure out how to achieve astronomy observations in this respect.

Note: For your information, I will visit Sun's site tomorow and meet meet with Sun Wei again.

3) (U.S.A.) Larry Berg: The effect of planetary positions on earthquakes, weather and behavior

www.justgoodtiming.com

Main reaction:

-- Many people expressed they very impressed of the work by Larry. The astronomist attending the meeting would like to study Larry's work in details.

-- A number of experts considered Larry's work clearly conforms with the Chinese cultural concept of "Universe - Earth - Biology - Human", in which humans and the biology community (plants, animals, virus etc.) and the Earth are all strongly effected by movements and activites in the Earth - Moon - Solar system.

4) (Turkey) Bulent Doruker: Unusual natural event observation network

www.dohad.org

Main reaction:

-- A number of Chinese researchers carefully studed such unusual natural events appearing before earthquakes, and carried out substantial research on such historical records. Xu Hao-min who attended the conference, published a book "Geophenomina Data, Omen-Geology, Earthquake Prediction" (1998, 310 pages

-- Xu pointed out: After several serious disasterous earthquakes during 2002 - 2003, many people reported that such phenomina/omens appeared, but people ignored them and paid not attention.)., Xu thus called again during the meeting to educate people to pay attention to such phenomina and report them to the seismology departments for alert.

-- After introduction on the successful work in Turkey, taking full advantage of both volunteers and the Internet, a number of members of the committee stated that development similar work in China should be an important part of the work of the committee.

5) (Czeck) Pavel Kalenda:

Influence of Earth tides on global seismicity

Test of information gain of seismic events prediction by Shan R. Shanmugasundaram

Note: Not available on website yet.

Main reaction:

-- Our members has strong interest in the intereaction effect between the long-term cycle (20 years) and medium-term cycle (4.5 yrs), and felt that a lot of their work indicates similar periods. They would like to further study and compare conclusions from their work with work by Pavel.

6) (U.S.A.) Roger Hunter: Earthquake probability evaluation program (based on the formula by Alan Jones)

-- The Earthquake Research Center of the Beijing Polytechnic University and a few members expressed interest in the program and made copies for further study.

-- Some members had interest in studying how Pavel used Roger's probability program in evaluating Shan's work.

-- One question: Would it make considerable difference if the NEIC earthquake catalog incorporated in program is made more complete, i.e. the length of time, and incoroporated with results from other cataloges, or if it is replaced with a detailed Chinese earthquake catalog (including historical earthquakes) for propability analysis of earthquakes occurring within China.

D. Discussion on plans for 2004

In mid-Nov. I, as the Advisor to the committee, submitted a proposal covering a series of suggestions.

Some subjects seriously considered included:

1) The committee should establish its website in 2004. The website should give full consideration and learn from the experience of the website established in Turkey.

2) The committee should consider to organize a Natural Hazard Prediction Exhibition to be showed before the end of 2004.

3) The committee should put together a proposal to conduct comprehensive natural hazard risk analysis consultant services for provinces, starting with one of the most frequent hazard hitten provinces.

E. Acknowlegement

The committee expressed appreciation to all those who contributed to and/or supported the natural hazard prediction work during the past year, especially thanked the following:

1) The Earthquake Research Center of the Beijing Polytechnic University acting as the host of this meeting;

2) To Chen I-wan, Califas Consultants (Bejing) Co., Ltd. and the Ninbo Wenkui Pen Making Co., who helped to raise and contribute the funds for this meeting.

3) To E.D.G., Shan, Bully (Bulent Doruker), Pavel, Larry and Roger for preparing and submitting their presentations/programs to the members of the committee at the meeting.

The above provides an outline of the successful completion of our conference.

Thank you for all your support again!

I now need a few days to catch up on my consultant work to generate some income.

The workload is again on me to prepare papers on your work in Chinese to enable our members to more carefully study your work.

Merry Xmas greetings to all of you.

Rgds

Chen I-Wan, Advisor

Committee of Natural Hazard Prediction of China Geophysics Society